"Altruistica": Seeking a return to full financial disclosure and regulatory oversight. A financial market analysis blog for "entertainment purposes" only by an experienced CFA seeking new hedge fund engagements for investment writing and analysis. The author has experience investing internationally, running a hedge fund, making angel investments, and helping launch five startup companies. Investors should do their own due diligence.

08 January 2007

Iran threatens to stop oil flow via Hormuz strait

S&P eminis Straight Up Since Late Summer

Hard to believe that the increasing tensions in the Persian Gulf coupled with the U.S. military buildup will be ignored by the market. Today's rebound doesn't seem to reflect the rising risk premium that should exist from the President's "surge" speech on Wednesday night. Of course, this military buildup is simply a warning to Iran... This action harkens back to the pre-Iraq II war as the U.S. buildup intensified in September 2002. Deja Vu? Of course, it does get to a point of being irreversible.

Jerusalem Post- Jan 8 2007: A senior Iranian officer warned that if the West continues to threaten Iran's economy over its nuclear program, Teheran will discontinue the flow of oil via the Strait of Hormuz, Israel Radio reported Monday. According to the officer, 40% of the world's oil is transferred through the strait, and the world is dependent on Iran for a source of energy and a stable economy. Iran's spiritual leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, added that Iran cannot allow itself to give up the right to develop its nuclear technology program.

And the Iran escalation is coinciding with a blockage of Russian oil by Belarus of supplies that we destined for Germany and Poland. Nothing to worry about.

MINSK, Belarus (AP) - Belarus has blocked the transit of Russian oil through its territory to European countries including Germany and Poland, news reports said Monday, raising the stakes in a bitter energy dispute between Russia and the neighboring former Soviet nation. EU energy chief Andris Piebalgs said Monday the cuts pose "no immediate risk" to energy supplies in the EU, but that he was seeking an "urgent and detailed explanation" of the cuts from authorities in Belarus and Russia. The head of the Russian state pipeline operator Transneft, Simon Vainshtok, accused Belarus of siphoning off Russian oil through the Druzhba, or Friendship, pipeline that was destined for Europe since the weekend. "On Jan. 6 the Belarusian side, without warning anyone, unilaterally started illegally siphoning off oil from the Druzhba pipeline designed solely for the transportation of oil to consumers in Western Europe," Vainshtok was quoted as saying by Russian news agencies.


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